Jan 29, 2019
After the most scandal-filled year on record for the social networking giant, Facebook will report Q4 results on Wednesday Jan 30th after market close. Zuckerberg and his execs will also give commentary on 2019.
First, we expect user metrics to be mixed. Here are the theses from bulls (positive) and bears (negatives), in our view:
What remains to be seen is if the pace of slowdown will become even slower. We believe analysts expect monthly active users (MAUs) to growth 8% and 7% in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Next, we think investors will focus on the transition to Stories from Feed:
Of course, we believe regulatory concerns and advertiser perception will be a focus:
Lastly, we think expense growth will be closely watched. This is one of the few metrics for which Facebook gives formal guidance to investors:
In terms of sentiment, most sell-side research firms seem upbeat. 82% of firms have a Buy rating on the stock, with an average price target of $185 (+24% upside). In contrast, we've heard many "buy side" firms (e.g. hedge funds) were more balanced/negative on the stock in recent months. Though that could change with the upcoming results.
Given the lack of user exodus from Facebook's platforms combined with the stock's late 2018 slide, the upcoming results may end up being a case of "better than feared" for investors, even if user growth is weak. Near its lowest valuation levels in history (~20x 2019 P/E on consensus estimates), we wouldn't be surprised.
Cash Management
© Copyright 2024 Titan Global Capital Management USA LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Titan Global Capital Management USA LLC ("Titan") is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). By using this website, you accept and agree to Titan’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Titan’s investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States in jurisdictions where Titan is registered. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell securities or investment products. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Account holdings and other information provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered investment recommendations. The content on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a comprehensive description of Titan’s investment advisory services.
Please refer to Titan's Program Brochure for important additional information. Certain investments are not suitable for all investors. Before investing, you should consider your investment objectives and any fees charged by Titan. The rate of return on investments can vary widely over time, especially for long term investments. Investment losses are possible, including the potential loss of all amounts invested, including principal. Brokerage services are provided to Titan Clients by Titan Global Technologies LLC and Apex Clearing Corporation, both registered broker-dealers and members of FINRA/SIPC. For more information, visit our disclosures page. You may check the background of these firms by visiting FINRA's BrokerCheck.
Various Registered Investment Company products (“Third Party Funds”) offered by third party fund families and investment companies are made available on the platform. Some of these Third Party Funds are offered through Titan Global Technologies LLC. Other Third Party Funds are offered to advisory clients by Titan. Before investing in such Third Party Funds you should consult the specific supplemental information available for each product. Please refer to Titan's Program Brochure for important additional information. Certain Third Party Funds that are available on Titan’s platform are interval funds. Investments in interval funds are highly speculative and subject to a lack of liquidity that is generally available in other types of investments. Actual investment return and principal value is likely to fluctuate and may depreciate in value when redeemed. Liquidity and distributions are not guaranteed, and are subject to availability at the discretion of the Third Party Fund.
The cash sweep program is made available in coordination with Apex Clearing Corporation through Titan Global Technologies LLC. Please visit www.titan.com/legal for applicable terms and conditions and important disclosures.
Cryptocurrency advisory services are provided by Titan.
Information provided by Titan Support is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice.
Contact Titan at support@titan.com. 508 LaGuardia Place NY, NY 10012.